RetireTool

FIRE Calculator

Estimate the age you'll reach financial independence, based on the classic 4% rule. All calculations run in your browser.

Your numbers

$100,000
$1,000
S&P 500 (VOO · SPY · IVV) · 1928–2026
2.0%
$4,000
4.0%

You'll reach FIRE at

age 52.0

In 22.0 years, with a target of $1,855,176

Withdrawal rate sensitivity

RateTarget (today's money)
3.0%$1,600,000
3.5%$1,371,429
4.0%$1,200,000

How this is calculated

This calculator projects your investable assets forward month by month using your current balance, monthly contribution, and expected annual return. In parallel it grows your retirement spending by your assumed inflation rate. Your FIRE number is that future annual spending divided by your safe withdrawal rate — 25x annual spending at the standard 4% rule. You reach FIRE the first month your projected assets meet that target.

This is a simplified fixed-return projection — it does not account for market volatility or sequence-of-returns risk. For a year-by-year historical test, try the Historical Backtest. Historical Backtest

The return presets are long-run historical averages shown for illustration only. They are not recommendations to buy any fund, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Frequently asked questions

What is the 4% rule?+
It's a rule of thumb from research on historical US market returns: if you withdraw 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement and adjust that amount for inflation each year after, the portfolio historically lasted at least 30 years in most periods. It implies a target of roughly 25x your annual spending.
Is the 4% rule safe?+
It is a starting point, not a guarantee. It was derived from a specific market and period, assumes a 30-year retirement, and ignores fees and taxes. Retiring into a poor sequence of early returns — as in the mid-1960s — historically broke it. Use the backtest to see how your own plan behaves.

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